So what does it mean (Republican version)?

By the time you read this, I may or may not have gotten the Republican order exactly right (John McCain and Fred Thompson are jockeying for third as I write).  Huckabee, however, is comfortably in first (and that won’t change), and he certainly did better than I thought he would (although I did say he would win).

So what does it all mean?  Well, none of this may be true tomorrow, but here goes . . .

Huckabee just won the “southern” primary: Dixie was supposed to be Thompson’s bulwark; Huckabee just seized it.  Even if Thompson hangs on to third, he is in deep trouble.  The social conservatives will embrace Huckabee as one of their own, and that will make a dramatic impact in South Carolina and the Deep South (Florida is another story; I’ll get to that a little later).

Romney will fall further behind McCain in New Hampshire: There is no way Romney can spin this one; he got waxed here.  He’s already behind McCain, they guywho blasted ethanol whenever he showed up in Iowa and still finished third (I think).  I do not know who will win New Hampshire yet, but it could be McCain (likely), Romney (possible), or Huckabee (conceivable, but not much more).

What will happen in Michigan: Ask me after New Hampshire.

What will happen in Florida: Ask me after South Carolina (and maybe I’ll answer).

The more important thing, though, is . . .

Who wins the northern primary?  I don’t know.  New Hampshire may sort this out, but if Romney can recover in Michigan (and he can), and/or Giuliani can hold his lead in Florida (if New Hampshire and Michigan have different winner, that may still happen), the rest of the country (i.e., outside the South) could be so divided that no one ends up winning a majority of delegates.  That can still happen, even without Thompson (I’m not saying he’ll drop out; I am saying I think he no longer has the regional base he desperately needed).

So, to sum up: Huckabee and McCain will rise; Romney and Thompson will fall; and I have no idea what will happen to Giuliani.

However, this site will keep going.