How Bob Marshall will win

Having spent considerable verbage tearing down Jim Gilmore (sorry, but the truth hurts), I can now post about something far more pleasant: how and why Delegate Bob Marshall will become our next U.S. Senator.

To the extent that Marshall is known at all, it’s for bring a Northern Virginia politician who drives liberals and establishment Republicans nuts; as such, the notion that he would be a terrific general election candidate is not yet conventional wisdom.  It will merely make his victory all the sweeter.

Here are the reasons Bob Marshall is a superior candidate for the Republican Party

The Base will love him: Take a look at his exploratory committee roster again.  Note the first name: Ken Cuccinelli.  Despite the Cooch’s bad vote on HB3202, he still has tremendous “cred” with the Republican base.  The fact that he has not only refused to join the Gilmore bandwagon but come out for Marshall will be a terrific introduction for folks outside of NoVa.  Meanwhile, for those still upset about HB3202 (like me), not only did Marshall vote against it every time in the House of Delegates, he is suing to get the law declared unconstitutional (which I think it is, BTW).  Moreover, Marshall’s social conservative credentials are gold-plated, and given what are sure to be raw feelings among social conservatives over the inevitable defeat of Mike Huckabee, Marshall is the best candidate imaginable to keep these voters in the Republican fold.

The GOP establishment doesn’t like him: Virginia voters made abundantly clear what they thought of the GOP leadershipin Richmond last month.  The more Howell, Stosch, Norment, and all the rest try to drag him down, the more Virginians will build him up in response.

Bob Marshall wins Democratic votes: You don’t believe that, do you?  Well, take a look at his last election.  The 13th HoD District shared space with 4 different State Senate districts.  In those precincts, the State Senate split (remember, that was the top of the ticket in 2007) was 52-48 for the Democrats, putting the district in the Lean Democratic column at the State Senate level (the statewide split was 48-48).  Yet Marshall won 58% of the vote – a full ten points better than his up-ballot ticketmates.  Outside of Roger Zurn, a local Treasurer for over a dozen years, Marshall was the only Republican to carry his section of Loudoun County.

In other words, Bob Marshall is a consistent conservative with genuine “crossover” appeal – exactly what the party needs.

I know Gilmore is the presumptive favorite (for now), but I expect that to change, and very quickly.  Marshall’s local strength in Northern Virginia, combined with his social conservative appeal in the rural parts of the county (don’t forget, Gilmore is from the Richmond suburbs – the rural areas are thus wide open) will, IMHO, combine to overwhelm Gilmore’s admitted strengths in the Richmond area and Hampton Roads (I would also note that Marshall’s strong stance against HB3202 should greatly diminish Gilmore’s Hampton Roads advantage).

Can Bob Marshall beat Mark Warner?  Yes, he can, and yes, he will, for three reasons.

He’s much better on gun rights than Mark Earley: I can understand how people could forget some of the key aspects of the 2001 Governor’s race, what with the rise of the Chichester rebellion, 9/11, and Warner’s continuing refusal to admit that he was a former state Democratic chairman (and thus much more of an establishment politician than he let on), it’s easy to let one critical fact slip into the memory hole – Mark Earley was weak on gun rights.  It was this opening that Warner used to win southwestern VA votes, and against Earley it worked like a charm.  Marshall won’t have that problem, and can stop Warner cold in western VA.

Taxes: President Bush’s 2001 tax cuts will expire four years from now, meaning it is certain to become an issue not only in the presidential race, but this one as well.  Warner can either come out in support of the massive tax increase that would result from allowing expiration to take its course, or open himself up to well-deserved derision for making another promise not to raise our taxes.  In Marshall, Warner will also face someone whose credibility on the tax issue is impeccable.  Whereas Earley could never get any traction until he stopped vacillating on the tax issue (by which point it was too late to make up the ground), Marshall will clearly be the candidate for voters who do not want their taxes raised.

Northern Virginia: No, I’m not saying Marshall will carry it (yet), but he will certainly be competitive up there.  Meanwhile, the Democrats are all but certain to try and paint Marshall as a crazed troglodyte to scare Northern Virginians into supporting Warner.  That will simply make it easier for Marshall roll up the rural areas in the state (see above).

So, don’t let MSM fool you.  Bob Marshall can beat Jim Gilmore, and he can beat Mark Warner.  In fact, I predict he will defeat both of them and become our next U.S. Senator.