First it was Rasmussen putting McCain second in NH and third in Iowa. Now, ARG has him tied for the lead in NH and – get this – second in Iowa.
Now, people are already trying to find reasons to dismiss the ARG poll (CampaignStandard), but I don’t think both can be wrong.
More to the point, I’ve seen this before, twice. In 1996, Steve Forbes surged past Bob Dole in New Hampshire, and came within the margin of error in Iowa – only to slip back. The there was 2004, when Howard Dean collapsed spectacularly – although I would say the real surprise was that John Kerry, previously given up for dead, reclaimed front-runner status and took the nomination.
Could it be that Iowa and New Hampshire voters have acquired a pattern of taking chances with unconventional candidates before going back to the folks considered the “insider” choice all along?
If so, that could be very reassuring to a certain Senator from New York.
July 12, 2008 at 10:36 pm |
[...] throughout 2007 he was written off, only to take the lead in New Hampshire right at the end of the year, win the state in January, and become the GOP front-runner [...]