The state of the presidential race

I’m surprised that today’s Washington Post poll has received as little coverage as it has. It may have something to do with the fact that the Post focused on the Democratic numbers, but I would say the Republican side is much more interesting (that’s on the second page of the story).

In short, John McCain and Mitt Romney are cratering, and Giuliani is soaring. Now, this will come as no surprise to followers of this space, but it will shock a lot of people who are certain Giuliani can’t win the Republican nomination. Here are the details (emphasis added):

In the latest poll, the former New York mayor led among Republicans with 44 percent to McCain’s 21 percent . . . Former House speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia ran third in the latest poll with 15 percent, while former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney was fourth with 4 percent. Gingrich has not said he definitely plans to run, and without him,
Giuliani’s lead would increase even more, to 53 percent compared with McCain’s 23 percent.

That last one even surprised me a little, for it would give Giuliani an absolute majority of Republicans nationwide. Even I didn’t see that coming. One more surprise comes at the end of this paragraph (emphasis added):

When Republicans were asked to rate Giuliani, McCain and Romney on a series of attributes, Giuliani was seen as the strongest leader, the most inspiring, the candidate with the best chance of winning the general election, the most honest and trustworthy and the one closest to them on the issues. McCain was seen as having the best experience to be president, but only by a narrow margin.

“The one closest to them on the issues”? How many saw that coming? As for the rest, I think it reflects the weaknesses of McCain and Romney more than Giuliani’s strengths. The fact is, McCain’s entire argument for his candidacy is his electability; once MSM dumped him for Chuck Hagel, that argument disappeared. McCain hasn’t had a good campaign day since. Romney, meanwhile, is trying to run as the “conservative candidate” with a record that makes Giuliani look culturally conservative by comparison.

With their supposed strengths not really in play, Republican voters see a Senator who has annoyed them endlessly (McCain) and a one-term Governor who was practically unknown on September 11, 2001. Compared to these two, Giuliani will win easily.

So must we prepare for Rudy as the nominee? Not necessarily; after all, my candidate is not among any of the names mentioned so far. My point is this – given Giuliani’s current strength and the fact that most GOP primaries are “winner take all” affairs, he will be very difficult to beat next year, and it will take a certain type of candidate to beat him. Here’s what that candidate will need:

A consistent record on social issues, especially protection of the unborn: Candidates who called themselves “pro-choice” six years ago (Romney) or tripped over their own words on the subject during their last presidential campaign (McCain) aren’t going to cut it. Republican pro-life voters would prefer candidates who honestly disagree with them over those who try to fudge this. Of course, these aren’t their only options; there are several pro-lifers in the race – Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Mike Huckabee, and Gingrich (I think).

Strength in the W-B-K War (a.k.a. the War on Terror): For Republican primary voters, that means Iraq, too – so Brownback is out.

A record of leadership in defending America: This is where Hunter establishes himself as the class of the field. Whatever one can say about Gingrich (and there are many good things one can say), the fact is this: as a politician, he was on heck of a philosopher. Tancredo, meanwhile, has dedicated himself exclusively to the illegal immigration issue, and while I agree with him on the issue (as does Hunter, BTW), he cannot be a serious candidate unless he broadens his agenda, which he seems determined not to do. Huckabee is better known for battling fat than battling terrorism.

Duncan Hunter is one of only two candidates to serve in the military; the other, of course, is McCain, and like McCain, Hunter served in Vietnam. He has served in Congress for over 26 years, and was Chairman of the Armed Services Committee for three of them. He and he alone has the resume on national security matters and fealty to the critical cultural issues for conservatives, both of which are needed to challenge Giuliani. No one else has that combination, and unless a candidate has that combination, they will not defeat Giuliani.

Can Hunter defeat Giuliani? Yes, he can. Will he? I’m not sure. Unlike any of the other candidates, Hunter’s momentum in the blogosphere is growing, and if he can turn that into money and on-the-ground name recognition, he can step into the role of alternative to Giuliani (what I have previously called “conservative candidate X”), a mantle that McCain and Romney in particular have shown themselves unable to seize.

More to the point, can anyone besides Hunter defeat Giuliani? That answer is clearly no, and I would ask my fellow-right wingers – particularly those of you worried about cultural issues and/or illegal immigration – to keep that in mind. You’re choice is simple: Hunter or Giuliani. Everything else is a political illusion.

I have seen the future . . .

. . . and for Virginia Republicans, it is very ugly.

Thanks to Ed Gillespie et al coming out foursquare for the transportation tax hike, this is now for all practical purposes the “Republican” plan. Gillespie, Howell, Stosch, Norment, and even Bolling have lipsticked the “R” on this pig.

Mason Conservative is arguably one of the most effective advocates for the thing within the blogosphere, and he once again made the argument (namely: this plan isn’t perfect, but at least it’s a plan as it does have some good things). His first commenter gave us an idea of what’s to come: “I hope you will be consistent and exhort your party colleagues to support the Governor’s substitute.”

Get ready to hear that over, and over, and over again. Kaine may have chosen to keep his cards close to his vest (or left in the poker set in his desk) until now, but once he puts them on the table, the main political benefit of the “Republican” plan will vanish. It will become, as I’ve said before, a battle between two plans, and the “Republican” plan will be the less popular one in both northern Virginia (Bacon’s Rebellion), while it continues to weaken the GOP in Hampton Roads (Deo Vindice – Bowden’s Blog).

The Republicans will then be forced with a choice of three options:

1. Cave in to the Governor, accept his substitute, incur the unfettered wrath of the base, and make abundantly clear that there is no longer a dime’s worth of difference between the two parties on state issues,
2. Stick to the “Republican” plan, which Kaine will likely veto, get hit by Democrats and MSM for gumming up the works (you don’t seriously think they’ll blame Kaine, do you?) over an argument not about raising taxes, but which taxes should be raised, still have the base upset at you, and at the end of the day, get stuck with the very “do-nothing” label you were trying so desperately to avoid when you went down this slippery slope in the first place, or
3. Come to your senses, abandon this monstrosity, vote down Kaine’s substitute, and present a plan that relies not on new taxes but on the state budget ending it’s bullet-train rate of growth in spending

The first plan will make Chichester and his little band happy, while the base will wonder what’s the use of trying to get the Republican majorities re-elected; the second will leave most Republicans deeply relieved, but still untrusting of the legislators, while the rest of the state will wonder about all the fuss and just think the Republicans are trying to mess Kaine up no matter what the price (again, MSM won’t blame Kaine). The last option will re-establish (at least in part) that the Republicans are the party of limited government after all.

As for me, I’m dreaming about #3, hoping for #2 (on account that I don’t see #3 happening at all), and expecting #1. Like I said, the future is ugly.

Well, well, well, what have we here? More good news from Iraq!

Building on the points Mason Conservative made yesterday, blogger Bill Roggio presents more good news in his first Daily Iraq Report for the Weekly Standard:

Less than two weeks after the official announcement of the Baghdad security plan, “reporting of sectarian murders is at the lowest level in almost a year,” and “170 suspected insurgents have been arrested and 63 weapons caches of various sizes have been seized,” reports Stars and Stripes. Bomb attacks have decreased by 20 percent.

Over the past 24 hours, Iraqi and Coalition forces have pressed raids against al Qaeda in Iraq targets. Yesterday, U.S. forces captured 15 al Qaeda, including an emir (equivalent to a battalion commander in the U.S. military), during raids in Baghdad, Ramadi, Mahmudiyah, and Samarra. The Iraqi Army detained 6 insurgents near Baqubah. Today, 11 al Qaeda, including an emir, were captured during raids in Baghdad, Mosul and Ramadi.

One reason for the decrease in sectarian attacks is the pressure being placed on the Mahdi Army. While Muqtada al-Sadr is hiding in Iran, Iraqi and Coalition forces continue to dismantle his Mahdi Army. U.S. and Iraqi troops conducted raids throughout Sadr City, Muqtada’s stronghold in Baghdad, and 16 Mahdi fighters were detained. The rumor in Baghdad is that Sadr himself is “doing some very deadly housecleaning,” as “Mahdi Army members have been disappearing or turning up dead in the Sadr City, Kadhimiya, and Baladiyat areas of the capital.” But Iraqi and Coalition forces have been conducting a shadow war against Sadr since last summer, maintaining the fiction that only “rogue elements of the Mahdi Army” are being targeted.

Funny, I don’t remember MSM reporting any of this, do you?

Not that it was all sweetness and light – two terrorist attacks today claimed 27 lives. Meanwhile, the evidence of Iranian involvement “continues to mount”:

Iraqi newspapers are now reporting on this development, and are blaming Iran for fueling the violence in Baghdad. A significant find linking weapons and explosives back to Iran was discovered by the U.S. Army in the violent Diyala province. The cache included Iranian made C-4 explosives and mortars. “The explosives were found alongside enough bomb-making materials to build 150 EFPs [Explosively Formed Projectiles] capable of penetrating heavily armored vehicles, according to the expert, Maj. Martin Weber.” This latest find follows an MNF-Iraq briefing that provided further evidence of Iranian munitions and support being supplied to insurgents and militias, as well as evidence that Austrian Steyr HS50 sniper rifles purchased by Iran had found their way into Iraq.

So the President’s new strategy on Iraq has led to decreasing sectarian violence (are you listening, John Wobbly Warner?), eviscerating the Mahdi Army, crushing al Qaeda, and finding more evidence that the supposed violence of the Iraqi people is actually fueled by the mullahs next door.

No wonder the Democrats want to short-circuit the thing.

Tommy Denton tries his hand at comedy

That was the only thing I could imagine he was doing when he came up with this line (Roanoke Times – emphasis added): “On transportation, even conservative pillars in the Senate like John Chichester . . .”

Thanks, Tommy; I haven’t had a laugh that good in a long time.

Cross-posted to Chichester Must Go

Excellent post from Mason Conservative

Given that Chris and I are drawing swords over the transportation fiasco, I would be remiss not to amplify the excellent point he makes on the success of the President’s bold new strategy on Iraq.

First here’s what Patrick Ruffini is saying at Townhall (via MC):

In Iraq, there’s a sense that change is in the air — literally. Omar of Iraq the Model spots a B-1 Bomber in the skies of Baghdad for the first time since the end of the major combat. On the ground, Omar writes that the signs that Iraqis are getting serious about security are more palpable. With the help of Compstat-like technology, security forces are cracking down at checkpoints (even ambulances are getting stopped) and getting nimbler about locating them strategically so the terrorists don’t know what to expect.

This turnaround in Baghdad is confirmed at home by the media’s near-deafening silence. If it seems like you’ve heard less about how Iraq is spiraling into civil war in the weeks since the surge was announced, this is why. Even some discordant voices in the media are starting to wonder what’s happening. Time magazine worries that it’s “Quiet in Baghdad. Too quiet.” That’s right — a dramatic reduction in violence is actually bad news.

. . .

When things don’t go well in Iraq, we see the endless B-roll of chaos and carnage. When things are on the upswing, we tend to hear more about Anna Nicole Smith. The media will never acknowledge victories in Iraq, so we’ll have to settle for an absence of bad coverage. But even in this relative lull in Iraq, it’s important to understand and appreciate the short-term victories so we can create more of them. And finish the job.

MC then takes the reigns himself, and overruns the Dems (and indirectly the Wobblies):

This is what makes the efforts of congressional Democrats so despicable. The dishonesty in their motives, the sheer politics of it, and the knowledge that for said politics they are willing to snap victory out of the jaws of defeat. If you notice the most consistent Democrat windbags (Jack Murtha and his twin, Jim Moran come to mind) don’t even pretend to argue whether this is working or not. They just jump over that small little detail and just scream, “out out out!”
Remember, victory is within reach and if we fail this country will pay for a long time. And if we do fail, al-Qaeda wins.

Masterful; simply masterful.

Was this what Gillespie et al had in mind?

“I once tried middle of the road. I was knocked down by traffic in both directions” – Prime Minister “Red Harry” Perkins, A Very British Coup (1989)

When Not Larry Sabato can put up a press release from the Club for Growth without a trace of irony, something is very, very wrong in Richmond, and it’s neither NLS nor the Club.

Here’s what the Club had to say (via NLS):

Gov. Kaine should veto HB 3202

We agree with Governor Kaine that the House Transportation Compromise bill is “bogus”, “irresponsible” and “a very bad idea.” It raises taxes and introduces another layer of unelected and unaccountable government. We implore the Governor to do the right thing and veto this bill.

Phillip Rodokanakis, the President of the Virginia Club for Growth said: “A man’s word used to be his bond; unfortunately, one can no longer trust the word of Virginia politicians even when they sign a pledge guaranteeing to the voters that they will not raise taxes.”

“Like a bad chapter from George Orwell’s novel ‘1984,’ a pledge against taxes has been reduced into a newspeak quote: ‘Tax is prosperity, unaccountability is freedom, collective voting is strength” said Rodokanakis.

Although we obviously disagree with the Governor on the root issues that make this a bad bill, we agree with him in principle and urge him to veto this abomination of a bill. At a time of unprecedented budget surpluses, Virginia families do not need to be saddled with another tax increase.

Rodokanakis said, “Virginians are sick of the same blatant lies from politicians year after year. We strongly urge members of the General Assembly to consider funding a transportation plan that does not include a tax increase, but instead allocates more money for roads from the General Fund and allows for building of smart roads through public/private partnerships that are funded through tolls and congestion pricing.”

There is no justification for enabling unaccounted and unelected regional authorities. This is particularly dangerous, given that they may end up controlling funds larger than the budgets of some local governments. “If anyone thinks that unaccounted and unelected authorities are desirable, they should take a look at the cronyism and unaccountability that goes on with the Commonwealth Transportation Board” said Rodokanakis.

As a result of this vote, we have lost all means of holding elected representatives accountable for what they do in office. If we can no longer rely on a politician’s signed pledge, how can anyone trust what they say when they are knocking on doors asking for our vote?

As expected, nearly everyone imaginable is screaming at CFG (see Bearing Drift and the comments at the NLS link). There are a lot of people who are too deeply vested in this year’s tax increase. This is going to be a deeply painful election season. I can already hear General Buford (well, OK, Sam Elliot as General Buford) ringing in my ears:

An odd, set, stony quality to it. As if tomorrow has already happened and there’s nothing you can do about it. The way you sometimes feel before an ill-considered attack, knowing it will fail, but you cannot stop it. You must even take part and help it fail.

Are Bowden, Bacon, Rodokanakis, and I really the only people who can see this?

Nice line, not-so-good analysis

You have to love UCV for this line on John Wobbly Warner‘s endorsement of John McCain:

The divisive and controversial Sen. John Warner (r)VA has given what could be called the cold kiss of death to Sen. John McCain’s presidential aspirations.

Unfortunately, Warner’s endorsement probably helps McCain, whose entire candidacy is based on his electability, which in turn is driven by how much MSM likes him. Given Wobbly’s recent history, McCain needs this to help him win back MSM from her new beau: Chuck Hagel. I just don’t think it’s enough.

RedState Interview with Duncan Hunter

The folks at RedState (well, to be fair, Erick from RS) interviewed Congressman Hunter on Sunday. As expected, Erick couldn’t help but notice Hunter’s “strong words about our failure to truly engage China as a rival and budding super power.”

Mason Conservative was also very impressed:

Rep. Hunter is a very impressive man, with strong principles and an active, conservative mind. He is the only true Reaganite in the race. His major handicap is that as a member of the House of Representatives, he does not have the bullhorn that governors or senators do. But, if there is ever a time that a House member, its now. The rise of the new media, and how the media no longer flows through only a few outlets, its easier for Hunter to get his message out through the new media. I like Duncan Hunter. He’s not gonna light the world on fire, but he makes you feel very safe and nobody will ever accuse him of being dim.

The Congressman is rapidly becoming the candidate for the right side of the blogosphere, and I couldn’t be happier.

Cross-posted to Bloggers for Hunter

UPDATE: Kilo at Spark it up! also mentions the interview, with one pertinent point: “how the Clinton administration was ready to sell the naval base in Long Beach to China.” Hunter was on of the leaders in preventing that fiasco.

What happens next on the transportation tax

Now that the General Assembly has passed the transportation tax, the speculation shifts to Governor Kaine (see Bacon’s Rebellion, Bearing Drift, and Mason Conservative). The conventional wisdom on the right side of the blogosphere is that the Governor is now in a position of political weakness (I haven’t been able to check the left side much, what with my wireless network emphasizing the less).

The conventional wisdom is wrong, because it forgets Political Rule Number One: No elected official is weaker than the power (s)he has courtesy of the constitution.

Governor Kaine can veto this bill, or he can, for lack of a better term, conditionally veto it (check out this comment for the excruciating details). Either way, he can completely erase the momentum the Republicans think they have gained from this. I’m guessing Kaine will take the conditional veto route. If he’s smart, he’ll challenge the general fund piece and the regional taxes, and call for a statewide tax to replace them.

I know the Republicans will scream about Kaine being an obstructionist, or refusing to have any part in the debate until now. None of it will mean a thing to the voters. All they will see is two competing plans: one from the Governor, and another from the legislature. They won’t care what the Republican leaders endured to pass their plan. They won’t care about the machinations that have fascinated us for weeks. All they will see is two competing plans.

In northern Virginia, Kaine will have the political high ground. Both plans will include funds for local projects; both will include higher taxes, but Kaine’s plan, because it has a statewide tax, will come across as more “fair” to northern Virginians, who are nursing regional wounds real and imagined going back decades. All of the supposed gains the Republicans are expecting will vanish, because they were never really there.

In Hampton Roads, well, I’ll let James Atticus Bowden reveal what Hampton Roads is thinking. This bill is a festering wound down there; the more votes are cast on this, the worse it gets.

The rest of the state will probably be more upset at Kaine than at the Republicans; after all, only Kaine will increase their taxes. However, there is almost no race outside of Hampton Roads and northern Virginia where either party has the chance of seizing a seat at the ballot box (unless local Republicans find someone strong enough to take on Ed Houck).

In other words, a conditional veto along the lines just described above will mean a political victory for the Democrats. The arguments between plans will hurt the Republicans in the most vulnerable areas, while hurting the Democrats in regions where it will matter least to them.

Of course, Kaine could also veto it entirely, which would seem a gift to the Republicans. However, Kaine can also call for a special session of the legislature to deal with the transportation issue, bringing everyone back to square one (he can also do that if the legislature junks his alternative on the conditional veto).

During the special session, Kaine can present his plan – either as something new in the event of a straight veto or his alternative plan as presented in the conditional veto – and once again, the debate will be between the legislature’s plan of the Governor’s, and as mentioned above, the Governor wins politically.

This was the die that was cast the moment the Republicans in the House of Delegates agreed to tax increases. In the political battle to come, the Republican base will not be with them, and they will be forced to accept the Governor’s plan, or risk going to voters with the “do-nothing” label.

I’ve seen this before, both in New Jersey (where I grew up) and nationwide. In the late 1980s, Republicans controlled the Governor’s chair and one house of the legislature. They spent money like water, and fell into squabbling about tax increases to balance the budget. As a result, in 1989, the Democrats swept the GOP aside and won the Governorship and both houses. Within months, they passed the largest tax increase in the history of state government. The state GOP, having learned its lesson, opposed the tax increase en masse. The voters of New Jersey rewarded them with control of the state for a decade.

Likewise, in 1990, President Bush the Elder broke his word on taxes, and demanded his Congressional allies swallow the tax hikes. Bush promptly lost his re-election to Bill Clinton, who responded with the tax increase of 1993. Again, the Republicans in Congress learned their lesson, opposed the tax increase, and went on to control Congress for a dozen years.

Will it take a legislative loss in 2007 for the lesson to sink in? I don’t know. It’s still early, and ironically enough, if the Republicans realize the error of their ways, they can still stop this thing and restore their limited government reputation (I would be stunned if Kaine signs this bill, which would be the only situation where this does not apply). Trust me, it is always better to correct the mistake before the election than to apologize for it after the election. Only time will tell if the General Assembly Republicans will realize that this is the only way out of the trap in which they have ensnared themselves.

The transportation bill passes

You will not see joy from this quarter upon hearing that news. For happier bloggers, look to Bearing Drift and Mason Conservative. As for me, the conference report is has problematic tax hikes of the same nature as the old House transportation plan (although the specifics are different), and it is not worthy of becoming law.

Oh, and I hear Not Larry Sabato is wrong about the rumor he posted (Emmett Hanger already has a primary challenger), but we shall see.

So it’s all up to Governor Kaine now. I’ve heard he will veto it; and I’ve heard he’ll line-item it (and the pessimist in me suspects the latter). If he does veto it, many liberals will be very happy, including (though for very different reasons) this right-wing liberal.