Well, that was fun

House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith had this to say about TIm Kaine’s Tax-hike plan (Virginian-Pilot via J.R. @ Bearing Drift):

“I don’t see anything positive in the plan that could make it something that could be considered,” said House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith, R-Salem. “It’s all tax, tax, tax.”

In other words, Morgan Griffith just killed Kaine’s tax hikes.  Now - paraphrasing and condensing Tim Watson (I’m Surrounded by Idiots) - who will kill Morgan Griffith’s tax hikes?

McDonnell’s answer to Kaine actually gives me hope

Attorney General Bob McDonnell responded to Tim Kaine’s tax hike plan, and like Lt. Governor Bill Bolling, McDonnell ripped Kaine’s statewide tax increases.  Beyond that, however, McDonnell went in a very different direction from Bolling, and provided the first signal that someone in the Republican Party leadership actually gets what happened last year.

Here’s McDonnell’s opening paragraphs (Scott’s Morning Brew):

Virginia’s future prosperity depends upon the Commonwealth having a 21st Century transportation system. Growing up in Fairfax County, and later representing Virginia Beach in the House of Delegates, I have seen firsthand the transportation challenges that we face. I believe it is imperative we modernize and improve the transportation system in the Commonwealth, and I know the Governor believes this as well. While I have worked closely and in agreement with the Governor on many important reforms for our citizens, I cannot support the Governor’s tax and spend philosophy as outlined in his transportation plan.

The Governor did not make his transportation plan available to Republicans until today so I am still reviewing the details. However, it is disappointing that the Governor’s third transportation plan since taking office is basically the same as his first two. Through all the conversations, negotiations, and debate of the past several years, the Governor has continued to rely on his belief in higher taxes with increased spending, going to the same government bureaucracies that have not delivered transportation services efficiently. At the same time, there’s a total absence of innovation, creativity, privatization, and the use of technology to improve transportation. Further, it is unfortunate that the Governor’s plan relies on regressive taxes that place a disproportionate burden on lower and middle-class citizens. This is not the way to improve transportation in Virginia.

So far, this sounds a lot like Bolling’s press release (here it is again), but from here, McDonnell makes several departures from the Bolling-Howell narrative: all of which are good news for the taxpayers.

Here’s McDonnell on what happened last year (Scott’s Morning Brew again):

What has been absolutely ignored is last year’s historic increase in transportation funding. The General Assembly passed bipartisan legislation that provided for the largest infusion of new statewide funding for transportation in 22 years, and did so without a statewide tax increase. Remarkably, today we hear almost nothing from the Governor about what that plan accomplished. Statewide nearly $560 million a year in new funding, on average, was dedicated to transportation. The bipartisan plan, approved by 85% of the members of the General Assembly, directed that 2/3 of all budget surpluses will go directly to transportation. Thus, based on economic history, there will be much larger future annual deposits to transportation when the economy improves. In years when the Commonwealth sees surpluses of one billion dollars or more, such as in 2005, this would mean hundreds of millions of dollars in additional transportation funding. Last year’s plan also put in place new land use reforms, and accountability measures for the Virginia Department of Transportation.

The Governor’s plan announced today gives no indication that this funding has occurred, and contains no creative reform components. Instead, the Governor paints the picture of an empty bank, which must be replenished with higher taxes on Virginians trying to sell their homes, buy new cars, or register their vehicles.

Notice that when McDonnell talks about HB3202, he only talks about the statewide funding routed to transportation.  There is no mention of regional funding, meaning McDonnell is not committing himself resurrecting the regional taxes and fees that the Supreme Court junked earlier this year.

From there, it only gets better.  Rather than even discuss regional funding, McDonnell goes straight to the real problem - runaway state spending (SMB):

State spending has increased 40% over the past 6 years. That averages out to be $3,369 per Virginia household. In the past 10 years the state budget has doubled. The reliance solely on new taxes in the Governor’s plan reflects a failure to utilize existing resources and to prioritize transportation as a key component of government.

This is exactly the problem.  When McDonnell gets to alternative solutions, the regional taxes are once more noticeable by their absence (same SMB Link, emphasis added):

Before the Governor taxes the people of Virginia one cent more I would like to ask the following questions.

Why is there no discussion of increased use of public-private partnerships in the Governor’s plan? Since the revamping of the Virginia Public-Private Transportation Act in 1995, it has been woefully underutilized. Why not let willing private road contractors take more of the financial risk, and, equally, gain more of the financial rewards of building infrastructure in Virginia? Where is the vast new statewide money from last year going? Why does the Governor believe that voters will now trust that money raised by a sales tax increase in Hampton Roads, but sent to Richmond, will actually come back to them in full? With the maintenance deficit and cost overruns being such a concern, why is there no provision to improve the efficiency of VDOT? Why is there no focus on dedicating new revenues to projects with proven ability to relieve congestion? Why are congestion pricing, tolls, and other free-market solutions not being considered?

McDonnell practically sounds like Jim Bacon on that last point!

The he concludes (last time I’m linking to Scott):

I’m confident that a bipartisan resolution of these transportation issues can be resolved by the General Assembly and the Governor in this special session. With the dramatic new statewide funding provided for transportation by the General Assembly last year, I hope the focus of this special session will be on addressing the demonstrated specific regional needs in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. There is no justification for a statewide tax increase.

This is the only time McDonnell mentions the “specific regional needs in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads” - but unlike Bolling, he does not call for additional funding. 

In other words, throughou the entire press release, Bob McDonnell never calls for more taxes or funding, or any effort to resurrect the regional nuttiness of HB3202.

The differences may appear subtle at first, but they are there, and they’re significant.  It is clear that Bob McDonnell has learned from last year’s mistake, and is looking to avoid repeating it.

This is the first time since early March that we have hope of avoiding HB3202 regional tax redux.  It is also the first time in more than a year that I have felt enthusiasm for the 2009 elections.  If Bob McDonnell holds his ground, he may very well be able to shield Virginians from another tax increase (statewide or regional) - and if he can do that, he will wax his Democratic opponent next year.

Oh, by the way, our Iraqi allies WON in Basra

Remember the catcalls, hand-wringing, and general discontent after Iraqi forces began their effort to take Basra from al-Sadr and his Iranian-backed thugs?  If you don’t, Michael Goldfarb at the Weekly Standard blog has some reminders.

Well, don’t look now, but the New York Times - of all papers! - is admitting that the Iraqi military has carried the day in Basra:

Three hundred miles south of Baghdad, the oil-saturated city of Basra has been transformed by its own surge, now seven weeks old.

In a rare success, forces loyal to Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki have largely quieted the city, to the initial surprise and growing delight of many inhabitants who only a month ago shuddered under deadly clashes between Iraqi troops and Shiite militias.

It appears the reports of the Iraqi defeat (and all the requisite snobbish cynicism or “realist” doves) was premature, at best.

Cross-posted to the Shotgun

Bolling rips Kaine’s plan

The Lieutenant Governor starts out very well (via J.R. at Bearing Drift):

Since he took office in 2006, Governor Kaine has relentlessly tried to raise taxes on Virginia’s families to generate additional funding for transportation, even though such tax increases are unnecessary and are not supported by the vast majority of the people of Virginia. The Governor’s most recent transportation proposal is just the latest chapter in this never ending saga and I seriously doubt that it will be well received by Republicans in the General Assembly or the people of Virginia.

While there is never a good time to raise taxes, I am also concerned by the fact that the Governor and Democrats in the General Assembly want to raise taxes by over one billion dollars at a time when economic growth is slowing, fuel and food costs are skyrocketing, and working Virginians are having a harder time making ends meet. Increasing taxes now will unnecessarily hurt the economy and kill needed jobs. In addition, Governor Kaine’s tax increase plan is regressive and will hurt those least able to pay the most, including senior citizens on a fixed income and young families.

Unfortunately, Bolling kept going (same link, emphasis added):

In 2007 the General Assembly approved legislation that provided $600M in additional funding for transportation on a statewide basis, and an additional $600M in additional funding for transportation in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. While the Supreme Court has struck down the funding mechanism for the $600M in regional funding in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, the vast majority of the statewide package remains in tact and continues to generate significant additional funding to meet transportation needs across Virginia.

“If we are serious about finding a solution to Virginia’s transportation needs, rather than simply in engaging in another round of political grandstanding, we must keep our focus firmly fixed on solving the main challenge before us - developing a realistic and constitutional framework for providing additional transportation funding in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. To try and expand these discussions to a so called statewide solution is unwise and will jeopardize our ability to find workable regional solutions for Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.

In other words, stop distracting us from raising the taxes in HR and NoVa with a statewide tax hike.

As I said last night, the two party establishments only differ as a matter of degree on this one: the Democrats prefer wider tax increase; the Republicans want localized tax increases.  Neither is good, but the Democrats do have it worse, and Bolling’s criticisms of Kaine’s plans were on the mark.

The latest from Pakistan: Will Musharraf’s party serve as kingmaker?

The political situation in Pakistan continues to confuse and confound.  Roughly three months after the voters seemed to signal the sunset of President Pervez Musharraf, he and his allies are in the position where the governing party may very well rely on them to retain power.

The de facto rainbow coalition of the Pakistani People’s Party (the party of the late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (the party of former PM Nawz Sharif) has fallen apart (NDTV), as I expected it would.  Ostensibly, it is about the judges that President Musharraf bounced last year, but if you listen to the two parties statements, the fate of the President seems to be the central issue.  Sharif still wants Musharraf out ASAP, while the PPP - now led by Bhutto’s widower Asif Zardari - has no such problems with the President (BBC).

Thus, I suspect (as I always have), that at some point, Sharif will move to outright opposition (at present, he says he’s backing the government on an issue-by-issue basis).

So what would happen when (or, if you prefer, if) Sharif plays the opposition card?  Well, the PPP would need new allies to reform the government.  As it happens, Musharraf’s faction of the Pakistani Muslim League and his MQM allies have enough MPs to give the PPP a coalition majority (Int’l News Network).

This puts Musharraf in a position in which no one (except yours truly) could see him a few months ago - kingmaker.  He can’t give Sharif power (and he wouldn’t want to do so anyway), but he canprop up Zardari’s PPP.  Or, he could take a chance on new elections (if a parliamentary majority cannot be cobbled together after the PML-N walks, elections are mandated) and hope to benefit from the inability of Zardari and Sharif to get along.

The main thing to remember is this: Musharraf has alwayshad a bigger problem with Sharif than with the Bhutto family.  So don’t rule out a Musharraf-Zardari alliance that freezes out the least U.S.-friendly “mainstream” Pakistani leader (Sharif).  Not that I trust Musharraf very much, but I would vastly prefer him to Sharif - whose reckless policies in the 1990s led India to become a nuclear power to defend itself (and that was before Sharif started a war over Kashmir in which India waxed Pakistan) - as a partner with Zardari’s PPP.

So look for major changes in Pakistani politics over the next few months - and perhaps, when it’s all over, a stronger hand against Taliban forces in Pakistan.

Cross-posted to the Shotgun

Tim Kaine’s transportation plan gets leaked - and it stinks

The Governor will present his proposal for transportation funding later today (it is just past midnight as I write this) at noon.  The AP’s Bob Lewis managed to get the details ahead of time, and as one would expect, it’s not good (Daily Press).

For starters, let’s not forget that this is a Governor who promised not to raise taxes, but is now calling for three separate tax hikes.  The tax increases themselves are:

• An increase in the car titling tax from 3% to 4% (registration fees will also rise)
• A regional sales tax increase of 1% for Northern Virginia and Hampton Road
• An increase in the “grantor’s tax,” i.e., the de facto sales tax for homes

Allow me to dissect these in turn.

I know Jim Bacon sees gas tax increases as de facto user fees for roads.  I’m not sure it’s as good a user fee as Jim does, and furthermore, I disagree with the user fee approach in general (I don’t think it takes into account how some users value some roads far more than others regardless of car use).  Either way, however, titling and registration taxes are even more indirect, and thus more prone to error on the user fee side, than gas taxes.  Furthermore, at a time when the economy stands on the knife’s edge, to throw a monkey wrench at one of the most important industries we have (automobiles) borders on insane.

Next up is the regional sales tax.  Lest anyone forget (and Kaine shouldn’t - he was Lieutenant Governor at the time), the people of these regions had the option of raising this tax on themselves in a 2002 referendum.  As one can see here, the voters in Northern Virginia rejected it by nearly 10 points, and in Hampton Roads, the margin of defeat for the tax hike was more than 20 points.  Six years later, the Governor is basically telling these voters to drop dead.

Finally, there is the grantor’s tax.  The illogic behind this is breathtaking.  Has anyone else been stupid enough to propose a tax increase that will make it harder to sell real estate and make it less valuable in the process?  Given the aforementioned state of the economy, and the woeful state of the real estate market, this is a spectacularly bad idea.

Those who read this space know that I have been particularly hard on Bill Howell and the rest of the House Republican leadership, and I still think their attempts to resurrect HB3202 are terrible.  However, that doesn’t make Kaine’s plan any less disastrous.  Neither transportation plan should be accepted.  The only transportation plan that is worthy is the one that does not call for any tax increases.

Is Kaine’s plan worse than Howell’s?  Brian Kirwin at Bearing Drift is almost certain to say yes.  I would, too, though I consider it a only matter of degree.  Either way, the rightosphere should (and in fact, must) be united against Kaine’s plan.  It stinks, period.

What the HRTA’s little missive on taxes says about the special session in June (and it’s not good)

Jim Bowden has noticed that the Hampton Roads Transportation Authority has issued a release on the taxes it would have collected but for the Supreme Court junking their plans.  Bowden takes it to mean the HRTA intends to start taking in the taxes as if the Supreme Court decision didn’t exist.  I’m not so sure of that, given that the language specifically says the taxes will be collected “to the fullest extent permitted by law” - which in this case would be not permitted at all.

However, this release is important for what it says about the upcoming special session on transportation - and it’s not good.  I’m guessing the HRTA wouldn’t have even bothered to put this out unless they thought the state legislature would restore the taxes in some form.  Since the only people who are actually pushing these taxes are Bill Howell and his minions in the House GOP leadership, that pretty much means - as we expected - that the House GOP leadership will be as useless this summer as they were last spring.

Meanwhile, the one transportation plan that does not ask the taxpayers to cough up more money is waiting for a sponsor in the legislature.

The further importance of the Augusta County War

As I have chronicled the fight for the Augusta County GOP Chair, I have generally held to the opinion that the question of who was actually chair was not as important as the strength of the low-tax Republican activists, which had only been enhanced by this debacle and would certainly send tax-hiking cipher Emmett Hanger packing in 2011.  Of course, as someone who is a good two hours from Augusta by car, I would think of the statewide implications first.

There is, however, one local consequence of the Augusta County War that I hadn’t considered until SWAC Girl posted the list of Republican elected officials who backed Hanger’s choice (Larry Roller) - a local consequence that actually makes it imperative that Roller and Hanger lose.

If one looks at the list SWAC Girl provided, one will find four local Supervisors.  Since Augusta has a seven-member Board, that means a Board majority has aligned itself with the tax-hiking Hanger.  At first, this may sound largely immaterial from a policy perspective, but that could all change come next year’s budget.

Augusta, as I understand it, does its tax reassessment every four years; the next one is due in 2009.  Therefore, next year’s budget will be the first one with a new assessment.  Assuming property values rise (and that’s not an entirely safe assumption - what with two “up” years preceding two “down” years statewide), the local Supervisors could be in the position to pass a de facto tax increase that doesn’t look like a tax increase.  Here in Spotsylvania, Supervisors had been pulling that off for years until the turn of the century, when a new batch of more tax-conscious members began putting the public’s focus on the equalized tax rate, not the previous rate.  Thus the maintaining of the 62 cent tax rate here was seen as the tax increase it really was (the equalization rate was 56 cents).

Now, I don’t know the political culture of Augusta County that well, but I do know that local officials would prefer not to make difficult budget decisions if they don’t have to do so.  That’s where the GOP Chair is of utmost importance.

See, if assessments go up (or even if they don’t), the Augusta Board will face tremendous pressure to increase taxes.  As we learned here in Spotsylvania, most Democrats and “independents” will fold like cheap suits under that kind of pressure.  The question for Augusta is this: what will the Republicans do?

Unless I seriously miss my guess, odds are that under Kurt Michael (or his political heir), the local GOP will do everything it can to hold the Supervisors’ feet to the fire come next spring.  Roller and his backers are another matter; after all, their factional “leader,” if you will, has backed four different tax increases in the last five years.

In other words, the resolution of the GOP Chairman issue will likely have a direct bearing on each and every Augustan’s tax bill next year.  With Roller in charge, Supervisors will have a green light to raise taxes; with Michael’s supporters in charge, they will know a tax increase puts their political future at risk.  I would suspect that at least a few of the elected officials who openly backed Roller are already planning for the tax increase to come.

For Augusta Republicans and taxpayers, this is of paramount importance, and it is why they should hope and pray Michael wins.  If he doesn’t, the grass-roots effort to prevent a tax increase must begin the moment Roller is installed as Chairman.  Either way, the choice is clear - the temperature around the four Republican Supervisors must rise, or the taxes of Augustan homeowners will rise.

The second-best reason to support Jeff Frederick

Bill Howell, arguably the author of the HB3202 debacle (and inarguably one of its most prominent advocates) is supporting John Hager (Bearing Drift).  The best reason to support Frederick, of course, is that Emmett Hanger backs Hager.

The Augusta County War did provide one piece of comic relief

Not that this was the intention of “Republican Veteran” Ray Ergenbright, but when I saw this (forwarded) blast e-mail he sent out, I couldn’t help but laugh hysterically.

For your comic relief, I reproduce in full:

Friends and fellow Republicans:

You have been warned over the past several months, through these musings, that our belief system is being threatened by extremists who want to control the Republican Party in the Valley. Well proof was delivered in spades this past Saturday.

The M&M (Michael/Mitchell) Cult continues to misinform their followers regarding the activities in which it engages. At the 6th District Convention on Saturday Lynn Mitchell patted herself and Michael on the back as she boasted about all they have done for the Republican cause. You would think that she and Michael are the only real Republicans and that they alone must approve of anyone who claims loyalty to the Republican Party in the 6th Congressional District. Mitchell/Michael talk about themselves being “grassroots” volunteers; well many agree! The problem is the roots they propagate are crab-grassroots.

The following description of crabgrass appears on a gardening website:
“Crabgrass is a type of annual HYPERLINK “http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-crabgrass.htm” \ngrass which appears in the warm season, and is native to Europe, although it has colonized much of North America as well, to the dismay of many HYPERLINK “http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-crabgrass.htm” \ngardeners [traditional conservatives]. The stubborn rooting grass can be difficult to eradicate when it colonizes, and it tends to overwhelm native [long time party supporters] species with an aggressive seeding pattern and rapid growth habit. As a result, most gardeners [traditional conservatives] try to prevent crabgrass [cults] from emerging in their HYPERLINK “http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-crabgrass.htm” \ngardens, and take serious steps to eradicate it when it does.” (HYPERLINK “http://www.wisegeek.com/what-iscrabgrass.htm“http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-crabgrass.htm)

Enough analogies; had the 6th District Committee Chairman and RPV intervened when it was obvious that Kurt Michael was out of control, this intra-party fiasco, made public by bloggers like “SWAC Girl” , “In-Politically Correct”, “Journal of the [un]Civilized Man” and “Spank That Donkey”, would have been avoided and the Republican Party would not be the laughing stock of political pundits and bloggers.

Now it is time for newly re-elected 6th Congressional District Chairman, Fred Anderson, to step up as a true leader and return this District to the position of integrity it once held. It is past time for the Republican Party of Virginia to review and revise its Party Plan to ensure that the interests of all Party members are served and not just those of political cultists like Kurt Michael and Lynn Mitchell.

Now, let’s put aside for a moment that this Michael/Mitchell monolith that terrifies poor Ray can’t even agree on a candidate for U.S. Senate (Michael supports Bob Marshall; Lynn Mitchell backs Gilmore).  Further leave aside the amusing diversion into crabgrass (then again, my lawn is such a mess I’ll take any grass right now).  One might be inclined to give Mr. Ergenbright some slack if he were a current elected official, or at least out up a tremendous fight in a Democratic stronghold.

In fact, Ergenbright was so soundly thumped in his re-election bid three years ago (for Commissioner of Revenue in Staunton, BTW), this his vote totalwas less than all three statewide Republican candidates (Kilgore, Bolling, and McDonnell) and less than all three statewide Democratic candidates.

Just ponder that for a moment: the people of the 6th Congressional District (which includes both Augusta and Staunton) are supposed to take political advice from someone who won fewer votes than Leslie Byrne.

I told you it was funny.